Applied Socionomic Theory

Applied Socionomic Theory

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June 2025

Summer Divergence: Indexes Rocket, Mood Barely Budges
S&P up 3%, CPI stuck near zero, Energy slides 4%, find out why the rally feels hollow.
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Christopher Inks
Earnings Mirage: Good Guidance, Flat Mood. Watch the Gap.
CPI slips to +0.11 σ, VIX curve kinks, and equity flows stay negative; why upbeat Q2 guides can still hurt stocks.
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Christopher Inks
Fear Cycle Kink: VIX Sleeps, Crowd Mood Slows
Spot vol sits at 16 while the curve kinks and tariff vitriol rises. Why the calm may crack within 10 days.
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Christopher Inks
Strawberry Moon Rally? Crowd Mood Peeks at +0.3σ
Full-moon optimism lifts indexes and drops the VIX. Why history says a pullback may follow in 10 days.
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Christopher Inks

May 2025

Political Heat, Market Pivot: Polarity Trades Ignite
Congress goes “shock-and-awe” on Russia tariffs, vitriol hits +1.7 σ so defense pops, healthcare sinks, and clean-energy stalls.
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Christopher Inks
When Buzz Peaks and Money Sneaks Out
#Tariffgeddon tweets hit record velocity, yet $11B leaves equity funds. Here’s how to trade the split.
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Christopher Inks
Bullhorns & Bitcoin: Hard-Money Hype Takes Center Stage
Crowd-Pulse pops to +0.6σ, BTC ETFs haul in $1.8B, gold steadies at $3.2K—see why the rotation matters before the next macro shock.
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Christopher Inks
Fear Cycles & Vol Clusters: Aftershocks Aren’t Done
VIX 50 → 22, Crowd-Pulse slips to +0.3σ—pinpoint the next panic window and trade the decay.
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Christopher Inks
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The Meme-Stock Mirror: Fringe FOMO Sets the Pace
GME calls light up the tape while Crowd-Pulse stays +1σ—here’s how to trade the echo first.
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Christopher Inks

April 2025

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